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Will Winter of Soaring Energy Costs & Looming Recession Corrode Europe’s Unity in Propping Up Kiev?_我的网站

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一 | 为什么高原地区离太阳更近，反而却更冷？我发现这个简单的问题，直到今天还是互联网的热门话题。 Prospects of a cold and bleak winter characterized by skyrocketing food and energy prices along with forecasts of a looming recession on the European continent have left officials fearful that the anti-Russia consensus could disintegrate, CNN reported.,As the cost of living crisis shows no signs of easing its relentless grip, multiple Western officials and diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, have indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky might find it increasingly hard to count on the attention of European leaders.,Moscow launched its special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine on February 24, responding to calls for help from the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk amid ceaseless attacks by the Kiev regime. The move triggered a swathe of sweeping sanctions against Moscow imposed by the US and its allies, including agreements targeting Russian energy.,Furthermore, the transatlantic alliance has been ramping up military support for Ukraine, pumping weapons to prop up the Kiev regime – something Moscow has repeatedly warned only serves to prolong the crisis.,The restrictive measures, however, have resulted in Western countries’ economies taking a beating, triggering sky-high inflation and driving energy prices to record numbers.,Opinion & Analysis'The Last Laugh': EU Sanctions on Russia Backfiring as Moscow Winning 'Energy War,' Analysts Say11 August, 18:52 GMT,‘Winter Fuel Crisis’,In the aftermath of the operation, following in the footsteps of Washington and London, the EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030. In April, Brussels announced its intention to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Accordingly, in Germany there is speculation about a possible energy collapse in the winter due to a halt in Russian gas supplies, with Economy Minister Robert Habeck urging citizens to reduce electricity consumption.,Germany’s capital Berlin has turned off the lights illuminating monuments in order to save electricity.,British households are bracing themselves for annual energy bills of up to £4,200 next January, more than three times the amount paid at the beginning of 2022. French shops are facing stiff fines unless they keep their doors shut while the air conditioning is on.,As Russia accounted for about 55% of Europe's total gas imports in 2021, the winter fuel crisis is uppermost in European officials and diplomats’ minds.,This is especially the case amid news that gas futures prices in Europe exceeded $3,000 per thousand cubic meters first time since March 8 at the opening of trading on August 22, according to data from the London-based ICE exchange.,As for oil, almost half of Russian exports of crude go to Europe, with the EU reportedly importing 2.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2021.,Accordingly, the costs of continuing to shower military, financial, and economic support upon Kiev authorities are starting to hit home with increasing force, Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the think tank Chatham House told CNN.,Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says19 August, 08:42 GMT,That is why, in his virtual address to the G7 Summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked to "intensify sanctions" on Russia so the crisis ends before winter.,"That may well be why Zelensky said he wanted the war over before Christmas, because the real issues will be getting the West to stick to its promises in the long run," Giles said.,EU countries reached a deal to reduce domestic gas demand in their respective nations by 15% by March 2023. The baseline agreement suggests voluntary measures to reduce gas consumption, but also contains a trigger mechanism that will be activated if the voluntary measures do not yield the desired results and do not help save enough fuel.,Referring to the deal, opposed at the time by Hungary as "unenforceable," "unjustifiable," and outright "harmful," a senior European diplomat was cited as saying:,"Within the European Union, it will be very difficult and we must try to stick to our promise to cut off Russia when it comes to any profits from gas and other sources.",The deal has been criticized for being voluntary, with some officials reportedly fearing that when things reach a critical point, not all EU countries will be prepared to accept the self-inflicted woes.,Donbass. Genocide. 2014-2022Which Western Countries Armed Ukraine19 August, 08:06 GMT,‘No Clear End Point’,The Western strategy of pumping the Kiev regime with arms is also reportedly being increasingly questioned by officials. They are starting to see it as a short-term solution offering no clear end point, the report stated.,"At the start... It was politically quite easy to rally behind Ukraine and make the case for donating weapons and cash," a NATO source was cited as saying.,Germany shed decades of "pacifist" policies since the Second World War and boosted its own defense spending while also sending weapons to Ukraine. Following criticism of “dithering” and holding back arms, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in June his country would send heavy weapons, such as the IRIS-T anti-aircraft systems. Subsequently announced plans on the federal government website mentioned 20 rocket launchers with a caliber of 70mm, as well as 2,000 rockets.,France, when promising to deliver Caesar howitzers, Milan anti-tank missiles, and thousands of shells to Kiev, underscored it was “always with the red line that we will not become parties to the conflict.”,Russia's Special Operation in Ukraine‘They’ve Bankrupted Themselves’: Europe Gutted Own Security to Funnel Kiev Weapons, Expert Says18 August, 23:53 GMT,The UK pledged scores of artillery guns, hundreds of drones, and hundreds more anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. But European countries have been reducing their military commitments for Ukraine since April, Politico reported, citing the Ukraine Support Tracker of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.,“Despite the war entering a critical phase, new aid initiatives have dried up,” the head of the team in charge of the Ukraine Support Tracker, Christoph Trebesch, was cited as saying.,According to the Tracker, Germany, France, and Italy have not made any significant new pledges to Kiev.,Furthermore, financial assistance to Ukraine from Western countries "dried up" in July, with Kiev receiving only 1.5 billion euros ($1.512 billion) last month. This coincided with Ukraine's Bureau of Economic Security admitting in early July that it had identified cases of the sale of humanitarian aid and military goods supplied by Western countries to Ukraine.,"Over time, the types of weapons we are sending have got more complicated, as has the training required to use them effectively. The good news is, these arms are helping the Ukrainians hold out. The bad news is, the longer the war goes on, the shorter on supply these weapons will be, making them harder to give up," an official told CNN.,"War fatigue" has also been cited by NATO officials.,"Back in February, it was easy to jump on the anti-Putin bandwagon. Now the war is in the boring strategic stage. There are fewer daily gains and losses and there are fewer photo opportunities," a NATO diplomat stated.,Officials weighed in on how corrosion could fray the anti-Russia coalition, doubting that countries might simply withdraw their support. However, the "parameters" of what outcome they support may ostensibly be reviewed.,Notably, some Western European countries such as Germany and France have publicly underscored the need for dialogue between the West and Moscow.,"Do we all still have the same view of the end game? Is it just getting back to the borders of before Russia invaded? Or is it back to pre-2014, before Russia annexed Crimea? And will we deal with Putin after the war or will he need to stand down. These are the long-term questions we need to be asking, but are not. It's better not to ask these questions right now," a European diplomat was cited as saying.,With the cost of living crunch forcing people across the continent to choose between heating their homes and eating, it will become more difficult for political leaders to justify spending funds and energy supporting a country they do not share a frontier with. Particularly as more and more countries do not perceive Moscow as the sole cause of such an existential crisis, the report stated.,There are believed to be fears among multiple Western officials that at some point, political leaders might opt to broker a peace deal and "undercut" the end game that Kiev has been seeking.,"There is growing concern in some quarters that if Ukraine appears to be losing ground to Russia this may accelerate calls for a negotiated settlement," Theresa Fallon, director at the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies, told CNN, adding that once people sense that Kiev is on the losing side, “they may start to ask why do we continue to supply costly weapons to Ukraine at a time of economic stress.”,Ahead of political challenges, such as an election in Italy on September 25, the arrival of a new prime minister in the UK, and November midterm elections in the US, domestic policies may ultimately begin to dominate the agenda, according to European officials.。我们可以在网上轻松找到解释，但是我发现大部分解释都没有说到本质，都只是解释了一下空气热量的获取方式，不是太阳而是地表。这种解释看似没错，但是有很多歧义，所以很多人可能确实不好理解。

二 | 要想用最简单、最容易让人理解的方式回答这个问题，其实我们只要找到高原地区和低海拔地区到底有什么不同就可以了。当然，这种不同肯定不是海拔高，离太阳近啊，相比于地球到太阳1.5亿公里的距离，珠穆朗玛峰的高度都可以忽略不计。两者真正的不同是空气密度，高海拔地区空气相对稀薄，低海拔地区则空气密度大。所以，导致高原更冷的本质原因就是那里空气稀薄，没有什么其它的了。所以这个问题正确的问法应该是，为什么空气稀薄会导致气温更低？ 要回答这个问题，我们就要知道空气到底是如何获取温度的。首先，对流层的空气确实不是被太阳加热的，太阳照射到地球的光基本是短波辐射，也就是可见光到紫外线的部分。对流层的大气成分对短波辐射几乎就是透明的，所以太阳光是穿过大气直接加热了地表。但是被太阳加热后的地表，它也会向外发出辐射，这种辐射主要就是红外线为主的长波辐射。

三 | 对流层的空气成分主要是氮气和氧气，其实这两种气体分子不仅基本无法吸收太阳的短波辐射，它们也基本无法吸收地面发射出去的长波辐射。

四 | 真正让对流层空气获得温度的是水蒸气、二氧化碳、甲烷等气体。这些气体有一个共同名字，叫做温室气体，它们吸收了地面的辐射之后，就会被加热，而它们被加热后又会向外发出热辐射，从而加热周围环境。我们理一理哈，太阳加热的是地面，然后地面加热温室气体，温室气体加热了周围环境，这就是气温的由来。那些空气稀薄的地方，温室气体的浓度也相应得很低。由于空气稀薄，高原地区的地面其实更容易被太阳加热，但是轮到地面发出长波辐射时，那里缺少水蒸气、二氧化碳、甲烷等气体来承接，所以大部分辐射都直接射向太空，而不是变成气温。所以自然就是更冷了，这些地区还有一个特点就是昼夜温差很大。现在我们知道，靠近地表的空气会更热，但是热空气会上升，而高处的冷空气会下沉，这就是对流层的由来。那么更有趣的问题是，上升的热空气为什么不会导致高原地区的气温升高？还有为什么对流层没有无限延伸？ 为什么暖空气没有加热高原地区？ 空气是有重量的，同时可被压缩，所以在地球引力的作用下，越靠近地表空气密度就越大，海拔越高则空气越稀薄。 受热的空气会膨胀，密度减小从而上升，而它周围的相对冷的空气则正好相反，会下沉填充，热空气上升，冷空气下沉，这就形成了对流层。

五 | 但是，上升的热空气，随着气压的下降，膨胀得越发厉害，气体膨胀的过程会消耗自身内能，也就是会失去温度，这个就是膨胀降温。地球上气体上升的膨胀降温速度非常激烈，越干燥的空气上升过程膨胀降温越厉害，平均而言，地球上每升高1000米膨胀降温6.5℃。

六 | 所以，海拔越高获得地面暖空气的气温就越少。所以，整体下来高海地区还是更冷。不过，热空气不会无限上升。

七 |
△ 对流层往上就会遇到臭氧层，臭氧层是平流层的一部分。我们前面提到过，对流层的空气成分基本不会吸收太阳发出的短波辐射，但是臭氧层中的臭氧不一样，臭氧分子会大量吸收太阳的短波辐射（这就是它是地球保护伞的原因所在）。所以，虽然臭氧层比对流层海拔更高，但实际上那里的气温比下方的对流层更高。对流层到了最顶部，气温已经低到-50℃ 到 -80℃，但是随着进入臭氧层，气温就开始随着海拔升高而升高，甚至在最高点可以达到0℃。对流层的暖空气上升的本质是它的温度高于上方空气，但它到平流层后，空气温度已经低于上方的空气了，它自然就无法继续上升。

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